Sudan Referendum - a Trigger for the Emergence of a New Nation?

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Map of Sudan - USAfrica Online
Map of Sudan - USAfrica Online
Nearly 99% of the Southern Sudanese people voted for the secession from the North. Does this mark the beginning of the world's next nation?

In January 2005 Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and the Government of Sudan signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), also known as Naivasha Agreement. CPA concluded the two decades of civil war between the Northern-based Sudanese Government in Khartoum and SPLM/A in the South - a war that has taken lives of around two million people and left several million displaced.

The CPA addressed the process of developing democratic government of the country and sharing oil revenues. It also set a timetable foreseeing the referendum of the Southern Sudan on its independence. The referendum, giving the opportunity for the Southern Sudanese to decide whether to favor the unity of the country or the secession and independence of Southern Sudan, was supposed to be another stage of the implementation of CPA. Both parties have given unequivocal public assurances to respect the outcome of the referendum.

The voice of the South

The referendum was held from 9 to 15 January 2011. Over 3 million people (well above the necessary 60% turnout) expressed their will in the referendum and 7 February the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission announced the final results - nearly 99% of the Southern Sudanese voted in favor of secession from the Northern part of the country. The UN panel tasked with monitoring the referendum said the process was well organized and enabled the people of the region to express their will freely.

International community backs the results

The UN has welcomed the announcement of the final referendum results. The Spokesman for the Secretary-General of the UN noted in his statement that '[t]he peaceful and credible conduct of the referendum is a great achievement for all Sudanese'. The Secretary-General also reminded and urged both the Government of Sudan and the Government of Southern Sudan to reach an agreement of post-referendum arrangements.

The UN Development Program (UNDP) that will be helping Southern Sudan to build up core government functions and efficient processes also supported the results. UNDP's head Helen Clark assured that 'UNDP is standing by the people of Southern Sudan as they move forward into the next stage of building strong, stable and responsive state.'

European Union (EU) backed the final results of the referendum, too. The EU's high representative of foreign affairs Catherine Ashton defined the Sudanese referendum as 'a historic event and a major milestone in implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.' Moreover, the EU promised continued support to work for a sustainable peace in the region.

The President of the U.S. Barack Obama congratulated the people of Southern Sudan for a 'successful and inspiring' referendum. He furthermore expressed the intention of the U.S. to formally recognize Southern Sudan as a sovereign independent state.

British Prime Minister James Cameron welcomed the 'announcement of the results of the referendum on Southern Sudan'. He further confirmed the United Kingdom would continue to support strongly the process of the final implementation of the CPA.

Sudan responds with increase of violence

Already in November 2010, months before the historic referendum, the head of peacekeepers in the Darfur region of Sudan warned of increased violence ahead of January's referendum. The UN Secretary-General at the High-level meeting on Sudan said he was very concerned about 'the increase in violence in Darfur and the tens of thousands of people displaced by conflict in recent months'. He urged parties to the conflict to 'put down their arms and engage with the peace process'.

During the referendum there have been reports of deadly clashes in the contested central area of Abyei. The Secretary-General again expressed his concern about the violence that took place in Abyei during the voting period and called on the CPA parties to prevent any further violence in Abyei and other border areas.

9 February, only a couple of days after the announcement of final results of the referendum, South Sudanese Minister, Jimmy Lemi, was shot dead by his brother-in-law. However, the officials say the motive was personal and unrelated to the region's recent vote on independence.

New challenges and perspectives

The referendum does not end the implementation of the CPA - there are many further post-referendum arrangements that need to be agreed on before Southern Sudan can become an independent nation. These include arrangements on security, nationality and citizenship, division of assets and international debts, international treaties, border issues and managing cross-border movement and trade, sharing the wealth from the Southern oil in exchange for the use of the oil facilities in the North - about 80% of Sudan's oil reserves and production are in Southern Sudan, while the infrastructure for exploiting the oil runs through the North.

There are also ethnic differences in the South and they may have crucial effect on Southern Sudanese viability as a nation. Even though the future is uncertain and the challenges are big, 'no amount of suffering in an independent and free state will outweigh the tragic history of being part of a united Sudan' noted one member of a youth civil society group My Referendum My Freedom. If all the challenges are met, Southern Sudan will become independent 9 July 2011 (when the CPA expires) thus marking the split of the largest African country.

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